Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 18.981891 21.633836 24.490772 27.793432 31.502138 35.534141 40.245517
2025-01-05 15.452608 19.136172 23.408380 28.713315 35.106789 42.545641 51.837785
2025-01-12 13.130443 17.159322 22.059490 28.428301 36.454357 46.197527 58.882138
2025-01-19 10.852929 14.897970 20.035223 26.993208 36.119843 47.625577 63.163204
2025-01-26 9.911904 14.179047 19.797645 27.672455 38.348247 52.230090 71.544039
2025-02-02 9.159259 13.604302 19.652289 28.395022 40.604122 56.925023 80.243006
2025-02-09 8.246352 12.694647 18.938353 28.231284 41.575199 59.880338 86.687179
2025-02-16 7.401765 11.789086 18.131607 27.835221 42.138084 62.238808 92.360100
2025-02-23 6.818119 11.208060 17.729973 27.964399 43.415813 65.615322 99.585168
2025-03-02 6.355122 10.763304 17.482778 28.281038 44.952880 69.402683 107.548864
2025-03-09 5.885409 10.261054 17.099141 28.343303 46.081517 72.612041 114.778781
2025-03-16 5.397966 9.683412 16.546104 28.086751 46.678250 75.020576 120.881298
2025-03-23 5.046979 9.311965 16.307907 28.334106 48.108225 78.818109 129.380940
2025-03-30 4.853313 9.193047 16.472723 29.244754 50.646554 84.458154 141.024986
2025-04-06 4.463098 8.690756 15.950870 28.963272 51.202037 86.965903 147.797532
2025-04-13 3.914970 7.852693 14.786792 27.500629 49.688701 86.048315 148.982800
2025-04-20 3.761920 7.731291 14.866082 28.192508 51.848377 91.207922 160.302538
2025-04-27 3.626010 7.629515 14.969878 28.927263 54.111138 96.628764 172.280467
2025-05-04 3.373528 7.278572 14.590998 28.760798 54.772852 99.368720 179.850661
2025-05-11 3.111965 6.885855 14.103840 28.357860 54.978627 101.320907 186.138763
2025-05-18 2.939173 6.658002 13.911719 28.489281 56.149729 104.983505 195.522105
2025-05-25 2.801784 6.491465 13.824970 28.811385 57.680638 109.333699 206.277984
2025-06-01 2.645158 6.270153 13.613380 28.874726 58.723621 112.849390 215.685749